The Middle East conflict has triggered widespread market volatility as soaring oil prices compel investors to rethink which sectors will suffer the most from rising inflation. The International Energy Agency warns of the largest supply disruption in history to oil markets, comparably severe to the Russia-Ukraine invasion.

The Bank of England is expected now to raise rates in the future, rather than cut rates as was previously anticipated. This is tied to the current 3% inflation which is already above the 2% target, and because of how the UK has a particularly high sensitivity to energy price rises.

The Implications

The UK’s position as a net energy importer with relatively high inflation generates particular vulnerability compared to countries like the US that produce oil domestically. From a corporate perspective, companies across manufacturing, logistics, and retail will face a simultaneous squeeze on margins due to rising energy costs and a dampened consumer spend.

The Bank of England’s interest rate reversal is also a big issue in light of corporate strategy, as companies will have planned significant capital expenditure, acquisitions or refinancings based on the previously anticipated rate cuts. UK businesses utilising floating rate debt, or fixed rate debt that is due to mature soon, will see an immediate increase in their expenses as interest payments increase.

What other implications does this energy shock have on companies?

• UK importers and other businesses buying products in dollars will see rising costs as the pound weakens against the dollar

• Companies that face a squeeze in margins for the above reasons will be pushed towards operational restructuring, cost cutting programmes and potentially insolvency

• Logistics and transport operators with fuel representing almost half of costs face large amounts of financial pressure unless they are able to renegotiate contracts to include fuel surcharges